2022-23 Long Range Financial Plan
AGENDA
✓ Reserve Plan Overview ✓ Enrollment Projections ✓ Tax Cap ✓ Budget and Revenue Projections 2
“The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining” John F. Kennedy
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Reserve Plan
Fund Balance-What is it? ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
More than just reserves Includes non general funds Includes commodities and purchase order encumbrances How does Webster compare to other districts?
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Enrollment
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Why Start With Enrollment?
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Really is the basis for all planning Need it for facilities planning at SED Need it to plan out for class size, catchment changes Utilize the cohort survival methodology ❏ Based on weighted averages over a 10 year period ❏ A few tweaks to take into account known changes
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Enrollment Trends
▫ 50% of enrollment decrease in the last decade (2012-13) happened since 2019-20 ⬝ ⬝ ⬝
63% Elementary 65% Middle 27% Secondary
▫ We know students have left for private/parochial ⬝ ⬝
However, data does not show large increase in overall number of students there Home school numbers up over 190 students since 2010
▫ Pandemic accelerated job mobility ⬝
Data indicates that many students left the area since 2019-20
▫ But does that mean we have extra space? 15
Enrollment Trends
▫ UPK Expansion ⬝ Over 300 students that were not there in 2019-20 ⬝ 13 classrooms (13 X 27 = 351) ▫ OWL Start-Up and Expansion This exercise is what told us we could start the program 5 elementary, 3 middle, 3 high school 11 X 27 = 397 (state calculated average class size) We have utilized the enrollment decrease for a program benefit (UPK & OWL) and financial (OWL savings vs. BOCES) ⬝ 24 Total Classrooms utilized ⬝ ⬝ ⬝ ⬝
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Tax Levy Limit Reminder that it is a cap on the Levy, not on tax rates!
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Projection
“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail” Benjamin Franklin
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Expenditure and Revenue Projection
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Notice Anything? Hint: It's on the bottomline?
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None, to smaller structural deficits predicted! Why? ✓ Foundation Aid Increases ✓ Non-instructional Salary Slowdown ✓ Stable Pension Projections 22
Revenue Themes
Tax Levy
State Aid
Miscellaneous
Anticipate a district re-evaluation for Penfield and Webster to bring them up to 100% equalization, which would cause a higher growth factor. CPI forecasted above 2% as well, both will have an impact on the formula being higher.
Projected the final phase in year based on original assumptions, not what was reported in November 2022. Building aid should increase with finalization of projects with SED. All other state aid categories should remain stable with slight increases on the expense based aid side.
Anticipating PILOT agreements to remain flat, although, on a year to year basis that may change as there are a couple commercial projects in the works, but nothing definite yet. Sales tax and revenues such as tuitions, continuing education programs, facilities rentals are projected to remain flat to minimal increases.
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Expenditure Themes
Salaries
Benefits
Pension
Support staff salaries leveling off as we approach the final minimum wage cap. Instructional salaries around 3% based on demographics of the staff.
Anticipating stable to lower rates for the immediate future depending on stock market rate of return.
Debt Service
Health trending in the mid single digits for increases over the next several years. Dental and other areas remain in the low single digits for predictions. Competition on retiree plans can lead to some savings down the line.
BOCES Services
Supplies/Contractuals
In the next five years we will have 3 previous projects coming off the books to be replaced by permanent financing for the most recent capital projects.
Predicting a higher trend for services based on labor shortages for programs and costs for technology related services.
Need to watch these areas, but have not seen large increases for everyday instructional supplies and operational energy costs. Can easily mitigate through spending freezes and usage changes.
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THANKS! Any questions?
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